Early Impact of a National Multi-Faceted Road Safety Intervention Program in Mexico: Results of a Time-Series Analysis

Autores: Aruna Chandran, Ricardo Pérez-Núñez, Abdulgafoor M. Bachani, Martha Híjar, Aarón Salinas-Rodríguez, Adnan A. Hyder
Publicado en: Plos One

In January 2008, a national multifaceted road safety intervention program (IMESEVI) senalesfunded by the Bloomberg Philanthropies was launched in Mexico. Two years later in 2010, IMESEVI was refocused as part of a 10-country international consortium demonstration project (IMESEVI/RS10). We evaluate the initial effects of each phase of the road safety intervention project on numbers of RT crashes, injuries and deaths in Mexico and in the two main target cities of Guadalajara-Zapopan and Leo´n. Methods: An interrupted time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling was performed using monthly data of rates of RT crashes and injuries (police data), as well as deaths (mortality system data) from 1999–2011 with dummy variables representing each intervention phase. Results: In the period following the first intervention phase at the country level and in the city of Leo´n, the rate of RT crashes decreased significantly (p,0.05). Notably, following the second intervention phase although there was no reduction at the country level, there has been a decrease in the RT crash rate in both Guadalajara-Zapopan (p = 0.029) and in Leo´n (p = 0.029). There were no significant differences in the RT injury or death rates following either intervention phase in either city.

Conclusion: These initial results suggest that a multi-faceted road safety intervention program appears to be effective in reducing road crashes in a middle-income country setting. Further analysis is needed to differentiate the effects of various interventions, and to determine what other economic and political factors might have affected this change.

Chandran A, Pe´rez-Nu´n˜ez R, Bachani AM, Hı´jar M, Salinas-Rodrı´guez A, et al. (2014) Early Impact of a National Multi-Faceted Road Safety Intervention Program in Mexico: Results of a Time-Series Analysis. PLoS ONE 9(1): e87482. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0087482

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Centro de Investigación en Evaluación y Encuestas del Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública de México.
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